Experts Say Divorce Less Likely — at Least until Economy Hits Bottom
The recession is going to get worse.That’s the prediction ofPeter E. Bronstein, a family law attorney with The Bronstein Schuck & Poller Group at Dreier LLP in New York.
How does he know? “A decline in the number of divorces,” said Bronstein, who cited his anecdotal experience in divorce law during recessions over the last 30 years. “The economy hasn’t hit bottom yet,” he added.
And when it does? The divorce rate will increase again, he said.
Gauging the effect the struggling U.S. economy has on America’s divorce rate is tough. Experts say is that financial problems can cause couples to divorce.According to a Gfk Roper poll conducted forWevorce.com earlier this year, financial problems are the number two reason couples divorce — with abuse ranked number one. Financial problems among couples are one of the main reasons for divorce in this country today,”said Dr. Frank Fincham, director of Florida State University’s Family Institute.
Earlier this year, real estate professionals from around the country suggested they were seeing anecdotal evidence that the mortgage crisis was causing an increase in the number of homes being placed on the market by divorcing couples.”…these days, escalating mortgage payments are exacerbating the divorce problem,” Nicholas Retsinas, director of Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, said in March.
Since then, declining savings, increasing food prices and skyrocketing fuel have added to the tough financial picture for many Americans. Now, legal, financial and mental health professionals involved in the business of uncoupling couples say they’ve seen a decline in the number of people getting divorced — because their assets have declined so much they would have to split debt — not assets.
“Some couples will remain together to avoid the economic pressures of the recession,” said New York psychiatrist Dr. Jay Granat.
According to the most recent report of the U.S. Census Bureau, (Vital Statistics Report, Vol. 8 No. 18), the national divorce rate declined from 2005 to 2006 and remained about the same in 2007. There are no national statistics available as yet for 2008, but some statistics are beginning to emerge in regions around the country. Several local family courts are reporting lower figures, even though the year isn’t over yet.
In April, the family court system in Fresno County, Calif., reported the divorce rate was the lowest its been in five years, crediting a marriage-saving program in the region. And, according to The Alpha Resource Center, which handles mediations in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, the bad economy has caused a slowdown in business because couples simply can’t afford to divide their finances.
Earlier this week, courts in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, in South Florida, reported a similar decline — of about 1,600 divorce cases when compared to the same time last year. Officials in the area have said they believe the economy can take the blame, or the credit, depending on your perspective.
But West Palm Beach, Fla., family law attorney Charles Jamieson cautions that the decline in numbers should be considered in context. “…Even in a down economy, the statistics from the clerk of court’s offices still report that tens of thousands of couples in southeast Florida are filing for divorce each year. That is a lot of divorces,” he said.
He added that the statistics are only for new divorces — not ongoing issues from paternity to modifications in previous cases. “In fact, an argument can be made that modification actions increase when the economy is doing poorly,” he said.
California CPA and Certified Financial Planner Ginita Wall agreed that there are consequences when divorce declines in a bad economy. “When California went through a prolonged recession in 1990 to 1994, we saw the number of divorces go down dramatically,” she said.
Did that mean “couples put aside their differences and hunkered down to fight to survive the recession together? Hardly. The incidence of domestic violence went up considerably. The DV [domestic violence] cases were always heard at 8:30 am, so the judges could be in court by 9 am for their regular calendar. During the early 90s, often court wouldn’t start until 10 am, there were so many DV cases to be dealt with each day,” she said.
New trends Wall has seen:
“What I see in this current downswing is that people going through divorce are in a do-it-yourself mode “ downloading forms from the Internet, reading books on divorce and working with mediators and therapists instead of going the adversarial route,” she said
And the volatile real estate market is forcing couples to stay together — at least for a time. “What I see these days is people are putting off the finalization of the divorce until the housing market gets better, or if one of them has become unemployed, until he/she gets a job. They must stay in the same house because they can’t afford the expense of two houses or can’t buy another house until this one sells,” she said.
To make matters worse,”…They can’t exercise stock options, as they have in the past when they’ve needed funds, because the stock price is down and the options are under water,” she said.
The economy isn’t likely to make a difference for one group of Americans, Jamieson said: “…There are still are many couples who are in marginal marriages who do not care if they can afford to get divorced. They are fed up with their relationship and want out, no matter what the circumstances.”
Granat added another group to the list: “Has the divorce rate dropped amongst the super wealthy? I doubt it,” he said.
